De Zerbi Under Pressure: What Spurs’ Winless Start Has Done to Sack Race Betting

Tottenham spent the summer building a squad for Roberto De Zerbi. Six Premier League games later, they are still waiting for a win. Spurs sit 18th with three points, and the Italian’s name has rarely left the top of the sack-race boards. Yet the hierarchy insists he stays. This piece looks at how the run unfolded and how bookmakers have priced his future. It also asks why the market cooled after Old Trafford.

A Rebuild That Has Not Clicked

De Zerbi arrived on 31 March 2026, replacing interim boss Igor Tudor with Spurs in a relegation scrap. He kept them up on the final day. The reward was the biggest spending spree in the club’s фhistory. Reports put the outlay at well over £250m, with Sandro Tonali, Mateus Fernandes and Savio among the arrivals. The football has not followed. Spurs only scored their first league goal late in game five, a 3-2 home defeat to Aston Villa.

How the Sack Race Market Reacted

Bookmakers moved quickly. De Zerbi was among the early favourites after an opening-weekend defeat. By late September he was 2/1 across the board to be the next Premier League manager out. Michael Carrick, under pressure at Manchester United, sat just behind him. Fulham’s Álvaro Arbeloa later joined the conversation after his side threw away a lead at Ipswich.

The Old Trafford Twist

The international break brought an emergency training camp in Marbella. It also brought firm signals from inside the club. Several outlets, led by TEAMtalk, reported that the board had no plans to make a change. Sources described De Zerbi as the right man to finish the rebuild.

Then came Old Trafford on 10 October. Bryan Mbeumo put United ahead on 73 minutes. Moments later, Rodrigo Bentancur saw red for a headbutt on Luke Shaw. Ten-man Spurs still found a way back. Dominic Solanke headed in a Tonali cross in stoppage time. Opta’s numbers credited Spurs with 1.56 expected goals to United’s 0.77. De Zerbi even said he kissed Bentancur in the dressing room.

Why the Price Drifted

That point changed the market’s mood. De Zerbi drifted to around 3/1 straight after the draw. By midweek, he was out to 8/1 with some firms. Carrick took over as favourite at roughly 6/4. Arbeloa, at around 5/2, is close behind him in most books. Prices vary from book to book, so treat these figures as a snapshot.

Next-manager-to-leave markets are a staple of UK sportsbooks, and they now travel well beyond them. Guides to popular non GamStop betting sites often list similar football specials beside the usual match odds. The prices tend to move together. Every firm is reacting to the same headlines, so a leaked board briefing can shift a price within minutes.

What Moves a Sack-Race Price

Results matter most, but they are rarely the whole story. Spurs’ price has reacted to a handful of familiar triggers this autumn:

* League position, especially a spell in the bottom three.

* Reports of board meetings or talks with possible successors.

* A manager’s own words, such as De Zerbi calling his squad fragile.

* The size of the summer outlay and the patience it buys.

There is hard financial logic behind the board’s patience too. His contract reportedly runs until 2031. Removing him would be costly. It would also mean writing off a summer built around his ideas, with around ten new signings still settling in. Club sources keep stressing continuity.

Reading the Odds Without the Noise

Fractional odds are easier to judge as percentages. A price of 2/1 implies roughly a 33% chance. At 8/1, that falls to about 11%. Bookmakers build a margin into every price, so the true figures sit a little lower. Sack-race markets also react to rumour, not just results. One anonymous quote can move them as much as a defeat. Football is Britain’s favourite betting sport. In the Gambling Commission’s participation research for 2019, it finished clearly ahead of horse racing.

What Comes Next

For now, De Zerbi keeps his job. A first league win after the break would quieten things fast. Lose again, and his price would shorten just as quickly. Anyone following the market should treat it as entertainment and set limits before placing a bet. Free support is available through GamCare’s National Gambling Helpline for anyone worried about their gambling.